April 9 4 & Out: AFC East Outlook
This is one of the driest parts of the NFL calendar.
Free agency has slowed to a trickle. Pro days are done.
The draft is still two weeks away.
So it seems like a perfect time to reassess the NFL and to do so, I will look at each division, team by team. For the next few days, let’s dive into where teams stand, what they need and give an early outlook of the 2025 season.
With that being said, of course things are going to kickoff with the AFC East (teams will be listed alphabetically).
1st Down: Buffalo
In case this is your first time with us, I want to offer the disclaimer that I am long-suffering Bills fan, but I am probably more harsh on Buffalo than other people.
The Bills are the unquestioned cream of the AFC East crop. They have won 5 consecutive division crowns and, at least as of today, seem well positioned to take No. 6.
As any Bills fan will tell you, however, January and February success is all we care about and the question is: Has Buffalo done enough to get over that hump and into the Super Bowl?
As of now, I would say the answer to that is yes, but work remains, mainly on the defensive side of the ball.
If games started today, Dane Jackson would be a starting CB in Western New York again, and that is not acceptable. Jackson is an OK backup, but shouldn’t be a player a Super Bowl caliber defense relies on.
Cornerback and pass rusher are the biggest potholes on Buffalo’s road to title town and the draft needs to provide (hopefully multiple) solutions to those problems.
The offense should be even better in 2025 with Josh Palmer, a step forward from Keon Coleman and a healthy season from Dalton Kincaid. Buffalo could use another wideout, but Palmer at least should be an upgrade over fan favorite Shoeless Hollins.
A potential problem could be Cook and his lack of an extension, but I am hopeful that doesn’t cause a problem and he balls out again.
As long as Josh Allen is upright, Buffalo will always have a chance.
2nd Down: Miami
What to say about this team?
A good friend and football fanatic put it really well the other day: Miami is a great paper team. Meaning that on paper, they should be vying for a Lombardi Trophy.
The problem is, that paper gets shredded when the competition or weather gets tougher.
I attribute that to their coach: Mike McDaniel. Ty Dunne, owner/writer of “Go Long” a longform NFL site that should be essential reading for any fan, said that teams are a reflection of their coach and this is the problem with Miami. Their coach is great for the media, gives fantastic quotes and responses to questions, but it can’t be argued, his team folds under pressure. To me, that is a result of his loosey-goosey manner. It works well when your team is winning, but doesn’t look good when the losses pile up.
Tua had another scary head injury last year and the long term health of the Alabama product has to be a concern. I know when I watched the injury I hoped that he would retire and avoid any long term impact from the hits.
Miami’s defense is still old, expensive and not very productive.
My early “bold” prediction is that the Dolphins will finish in last place in the division, McDaniel will get fired and a rebuild will start in South Beach.
3rd Down: New England
This is the team that will make the playoffs (as a wild card) from this division.
I love everything the Pats have done this offseason, starting with the hiring of Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel is a proven winner from his time as head coach of the Titans and as a former Patriot, he knows what it takes to reach the NFL summit.
New England entered free agency with the most cap space and made some of the biggest splashes of the offseason signing: Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane, Stefon Diggs, Harold Landry, Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradbury.
Couple that with valuable draft capital, and New England is poised to make a playoff run for the first time in years.
I think they are a year away from giving Buffalo legit competition for the division crown, but they will never be an easy out for any team with Vrabel and an improved roster.
4th Down: New York Jets
The Aaron Rodgers experience is over after two years that can only be classified as a failure.
Rodgers got his way for two years with offensive coordinator and some of his favorite targets, but the Jets finally put their foot down and sent him packing to his latest darkness retreat.
To start the rebuild, New York brought back a familiar face: former Jets cornerback Aaron Glenn. Glenn of course is the former Detroit defensive coordinator, who takes over a team that needs some juice on that side of the ball. Following the ouster of former head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets defense regressed in 2024, including the much-hyped Sauce Gardner. Looking at Sauce objectively, he had a pretty bad season, but if he is going to rebound, who better to guide that than a coach who played the position at a high level?
To replace Rodgers, New York brought in Justin Fields, the former first round pick of the Bears. Fields offers the Jets something they haven’t had at the quarterback position: a threat to run the ball, but where will the passing game end up? Chicago cut ties with Fields because of his lack of growth delivering the ball to his targets and Pittsburgh did the same, benching him for Russel Wilson midway through 2024.
The Jets and Dolphins will battle it out for the bottom of the division.
