NFL outlook: Buffalo Bills

There are a handful of teams in the NFL where the regular season seems like an extended preseason, because their real season starts when it becomes win or go home.

Kansas City, Baltimore and the defending champion Eagles are some of those teams. Another team that fits into that category is the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo has won 5-straight AFC East titles, is home to the reigning NFL MVP and made improvements in key areas heading into 2025. Ask any member of Bills Mafia (I am one for full disclosure), however, and all that really matters is what happens in the playoffs. The Bills should once again be the cream of the AFC East crop, but did they do enough to finally get to Super Sunday? Let’s take a look.

Will the moves on defense finally produce when it matters most?

For most of coach Sean McDermott’s tenure with Buffalo, the Bills have had a high quality regular season defense that crumbles in the playoffs (particularly against Kansas City). In 2024, the Buffalo defense was uncharacteristically porous in the regular season. To the casual fan, it wouldn’t be obvious, but Buffalo’s 32 turnovers forced masked a lot of the issues on that side of the ball.

General Manager Brandon Beane realized this and spent a lot of resources, both in free agency and the draft, to reinforce the defense in hopes that they can turn things around in January and February.

Along the defensive front the Bills added oft-injured Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht (suspended first six games), Larry Ogunjobi (suspended first six games), and drafted T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson and Deone Walker. The influx on the line was necessary, as the pass rush and run defense were both below par in 2024.

Buffalo also added first round pick Maxwell Hairston and brough back Tre White, to help shore up the secondary.

Bills fans at least have to be happy that the Bills went full on when attacking this weakness, but only time will tell if these moves will bear fruit when it matters most.

Will the receiver room produce?

This is a question many Bills fans have after the team didn’t draft anybody, added Josh Palmer and let Mack Hollins go.

Count me in the crowd that says this Bills receiver room is on the verge of a breakout campaign.

First of all, Shakir is a stud. In the first year in which he was a feature in the offense, he proved he could be counted on when Josh needed him. Shakir is as sure-handed as they get and his ability to break tackles and get those extra yards, makes him one of the leagues most underrated offensive weapons.

Before his injury last year, Keon Coleman was showing why Josh Allen wanted Beane to draft the Florida State product. Beane and Coleman both admitted that after the injury, he wasn’t the same. Assuming he can stay healthy, producing 1,000 yards and 8-10 TDs is a realistic goal for the second-year wideout.

Palmer, who comes from the Chargers via free agency, is the biggest reason for my optimism. As much as Hollins was a fan favorite, Palmer has the ability to create separation against man coverage (not a strength last year for many Bills), and can still go over the top.

Curtis Samuel and Elijah Moore are also players that I think will see an uptick in production. Moore had a career year with the dumpster fire quarterbacks from Cleveland last year, so having an MVP deliver him passes should help his career resurgence. Samuel, last season’s big addition, battled a turf toe injury and was a disappointment for most of last season. In the playoffs, however, he started to make plays Bills fans envisioned when he signed with the team. If his toe is back to 100 percent, it will be pretty easy for him to eclipse his production from 2024.

Make or break for McDermott?

This is a question that isn’t discussed enough.

I am not brushing away what McDermott has done for Buffalo. He turned around a franchise that had a nearly two decade playoff drought. Under his watch, Buffalo has become a perennial contender and a model franchise.

At this point, however, that is no longer enough. Making the playoffs isn’t enough. If you look at the five-year stretch Buffalo is in, they are the only team with the number of wins, points scored, etc. that hasn’t even reached a Super Bowl.

I look at what the Bucs did when they let Tony Dungy go. The man is an icon, a genuine good guy and did the same thing as McDermott: he turned a laughingstock franchise into a powerhouse. But, he couldn’t get over the hump. Tampa ditched him, brought in Jon Gruden and proceeded to win the Super Bowl. Dungy, being as great as he is, eventually won his title with Indianapolis.

Heck, even Andy Reid had to get canned before he got his title. Both Philly and KC turned out fine after Big Red was fired.

I’m not saying to fire McDermott right now. Rather, this year needs to be Super Bowl or bust for him. If the Bills keep running McDermott back and Josh Allen never reaches a Super Bowl, it will be one of the biggest blunders I can think of. Allen is an all-time great quarterback and the Bills can’t continue to fumble his prime with the same coach who choked the 13-second game.

Final Thoughts:

Buffalo is still the lead dog in the AFC East. They should have no problem getting into the postseason. The questions are: Can they finally get the top seed and can they get over the hump against KC and Mahomes. I believe the moves that were made this offseason were all done with the playoffs in mind and I do think this is finally the year Buffalo makes it back to Super Bowl Sunday.